Already the year is coming to an end and we can say that 2018 has been a good year for Quebec’s aerospace industry, despite the ups and downs experienced by Bombardier.
On December 6th, Bombardier executives will hold their annual presentation to investors in New York; the stakes are high as investor confidence in Bombardier’s strategic plan has been shaken after the presentation of the latest quarterly results in November. Also in December, Bombardier Business Aircraft will deliver its first Global 7500; the echoes we have from this aircraft program are excellent and we should be able to do an update soon.
A200 deliveries slowed down in October and November, but there is some evidence that Airbus will pull a rabbit out of its hat in December and that the revised target of 32 deliveries will be met.
The PW812D engine, for the Falcon 6X, made its first test flights on the Pratt & Whitney Canada B747 and accumulates flying hours to complete its certification in 2019. Since no bad news or rumor circulate about this variant of the PW800, we assume that the development is going well.
The aerospace industry in Quebec is doing very well and this is reflected in the mood of business leaders whose optimism is obvious. Expect mergers, acquisitions or announcements of new contracts in the coming months among the SMEs in the cluster.
With respect to air transportation, the drop in the price of oil will certainly have a positive effect on the performance of the carriers. In addition, the early arrival of winter favors the sale of tickets and packages to sun destinations. The next quarterly results should be very good in this sector.
Three A220s were delivered in September for a fifth consecutive month. Now that the assembly line is able to produce consistently, we will be see if Airbus is able to increase the rate.
It is this fall that ADM will officially launch the tender for the expansion of the passenger terminal and for the construction of the glass roof between the parking lot and the airport terminal. The contract for the construction of the parking at a cost of $ 90 million has already been awarded. Also note that ADM has just experienced its first two months of 2 million passengers.
Air Canada is expected to release its third quarter results before the end of the month and we will have a good indication if 2018 is yet another record year for the Canadian flagship.
We should have the opportunity to talk about Pratt & Whitney during the fall as the company is developing the PW812 and putting the PW814 and PW815 engines into production. We also know that the company is working on other development projects that we will try to identify in the coming months.
If the summer of 2018 has been particularly hot in Quebec and elsewhere in the world, it seems that this is also the case with the global aerospace supply chain, which is showing obvious signs of overheating. After Bombardier and Airbus have experienced delivery problems in recent years, it is now Boeing’s turn to be hit by supply problems; three suppliers have been identified: CFM, Spirit Aerospace and Tyssenkrupp. Shipments of B737 dropped to 32 aircraft in July 2018, its lowest total since July 2012. During the fall, we will follow up with the suppliers here to see if they are up to date. their deliveries to manufacturers.
Bombardier is loud and clear that it intends to stay in the commercial aircraft sector, but its refusal to identify where the Q400 will be assembled after the closure of the Downsview site gives vent to all kinds of rumors. A decision in the fall would be welcome in this file.
The election of October 1st will undoubtedly have a major impact on the actions of the Quebec government in the aerospace industry and air transport during the next mandate. But it will probably be necessary to wait for the next provincial budget in order to be able to measure the real extent of these changes.
The month of July will be one of novelty and change starting with Les Ailes du Québec being made available in english starting July 1st. The new web site will be named Wings Over Quebec and our goal is to make most of our publications available in both languages. This will allow us to present news of Quebec’s aerospace industry and aviation to a wider audience.
July is also a month of transition for the C Series as Airbus takes control of it; most likely Airbus will introduce the new name for the C Series during this month. It will interesting to see how the European giant will showcase the newcomer at the Farnborough air show. Bombardier Commercial Aircraft should not be outdone during the grand Farnborough fair and new CRJ orders could be announced.
Montreal Airport should be able to give the first contracts for the expansion and upgrade work coming up. Given the number of new routes that have been added over the last year, the Montreal airport is expected to be very busy and we will see if all the improvements done over the last two years are working correctly.
Have a nice summer.