On February 4, IAMAW will present a document that profiles Canada’s aerospace industry and its recommendations for a long-term industry policy. Not surprisingly, many of the IAMAW’s recommendations are supported by employer organizations, as there seems to be a consensus in the industry, especially around the need for a National Aerospace Policy.
February is the month of quarterly results for several aerospace companies; Héroux-Devtek will start the ball on February 7th followed the next day by CAE. The following week we will have Bombardier’s annual results on the 14th and Air Canada on the 15th.
In the last quarter, Héroux-Devtek was on track for annual growth in the range of 6% to 7% for annual sales between $ 460 M and $ 460 M and all indications are that it will stay the course until the end of the year.
On the CAE side, it is the finalization of the purchase of Bombardier’s pilot training activities that should receive attention. For its other activities, we do not expect anything new as CAE is not known for surprise announcements.
After the unexpected news of the sale of the Q400 program and the cuts made in the third quarter, we must expect a quieter day for Bombardier. It is on the backlog side of the business jet division that we will focus our attention. With the Global 7500 now certified and in operation, it should have a ripple effect on sales.
Based on traffic statistics for Canadian airports, Air Canada is expected to experience a very good fourth quarter in terms of occupancy. The early winter in the east of Canada has certainly helped fill flights to sun destinations. It will be interesting to see if the airline has been able to take advantage of the lower price of fuel.
A new year begins and here are some topics to watch for in 2019.
Bombardier is expected to make a big splash in January as the first confirmation of job cuts is expected before the end of the month. We will have to see which categories of jobs will be most affected and how quickly the companies in the aerospace cluster will be able to rehire the workers concerned.
Aéro Montréal joins its voice with the Aerospace Industries Association of Canada to establish a long-term vision and convince the various federal political parties of the need for a strategic plan for the industry. It should be noted that in Quebec, all stakeholders agree on the need for a long-term plan and vision; all that remains is the federal government to convince. So this is something we should hear about before the election is called next fall.
The future of the CRJ program should make headlines a few times; if Bombardier announces its intention to continue in the area of regional aircraft, it will have a great deal of difficulty reversing the current perception that it will be leaving the sector for good.
The launch of the production of the Global 7500 and the end of the certification campaign of the Global 5500 and 6500 should allow Bombardier Business Aircraft to make headlines for good reasons.
The certification of the PW812D for the Falcon 6X continues and the next big news for the PW800 family could come this summer; if competitor Safran’s Silvercrest engine still does not meet its promises, Cessna will have to opt for the PW800 or drop the Hemispher aircraft program altogether. In January, Pratt & Whitney Canada is expected to unveil the acquisition of a Dash-8-100 and its intended use.
As the production of the Bell 505 has reached its cruising speed, it will be necessary to monitor whether the pace is maintained in order to know how the sales are going. In the first half of 2019, the Bell 505 is expected to exceed 200 deliveries, a slowdown would be an indication that the order book is starting to run out.
The year 2019 will mark the return of a major air show in the Montreal area while the ÉNA will hold its air show on June 1st and 2nd.